Mark Carney's book VALUE(S) (2021) looks back at the credit crisis and the covid pandemic, and then, with lessons learned, gazes toward the future with a focus on climate change. If one reads as metaphor, with an eye for useful analogy, this material lends itself to uncovering important insights into and strategies for the art of risk management. With an historical perspective of technology inflection points, many of these insights are directly applicable to managing the risk that quantum computers pose to the traditional cryptography underpinning our digital infrastructure.

In our blossoming technical reality, is the quantum threat going to become another "tragedy of the horizon", with perceived uncertainty continually pushing risks into the future? It is becoming clear to many that, for classical cryptography, yesterday's quantum tail risk is quickly becoming today's central scenario.

Climate, of course, has no underlying motivation or objective. But powerful nation states do, and their motivations and objectives will soon be matched with powerful quantum-based means.

As a result, a vanguard of enlightened companies recognized this very challenge and began to budget for the quantum risk. Taking early and decisive action, they addressed this risk by adopting post-quantum cryptography (PQC) right down to the inner workings of their hardware security modules. Others have begun to plan their transitions in anticipation of tightening government legislation and other possible policy intervention.

Given the present trend of technical advancements, one can now start to imagine:

• physical infrastructure (i.e. hardware) lacking quantum-safe foundations becoming stranded assets that must be scrapped and replaced to mitigate a growing risk exposure;
• banks beginning to assess the impairment of legacy, quantum-exposed long-duration hardware assets and revalue their trading books under different scenarios based on voluntary "comply-or-explain" disclosures;
• insurance companies adjusting cyber premiums based on exposure to quantum risks;
• the International Monetary Fund (IMF) embedding quantum risks to critical infrastructure into its assessments of country preparedness;
• investors beginning to assess and question the credibility of companies based on their PQC transition plans in preparation for a post-quantum world.

These compelling climate / quantum parallels are numerous and help to illuminate the value of pragmatic scenario analysis with an honest consideration of the immense cost of disruption when risk crystallizes in the absence of adequate preparation.

We are all living in a global briar patch: a prickly and labyrinthian tangle of interwoven digital networks across supply chains, consumers, and counterparties. It is easy to get lost, and a single prick may be fatal. Under such circumstances, it is easy to accept the wisdom that plan beats no plan. Let's not slide down a path from careful to careless, responsible to reckless.

A plan can be managed and executed in a straight line.

Unfortunately, the fallout of unpreparedness is non-linear, and possibly discontinuous (in an existential sense).

The world has been duly forewarned. Quantum-safe solutions exist today that have been successfully deployed in production environments using ratified standards within formally validated products.

I to my perils
Of cheat and charmer
Came clad in armour
By stars benign.
Hope lies to mortals
And most believe her
But man's deceiver Was never mine.

[ A.E. Housman, A Shropshire Lad ]

Hope is not a strategy.

There is now a credible, proven path towards a quantum-safe digital future.

Are you ready?

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Crypto4A is a Canadian cybersecurity company pioneering quantum-safe hardware security modules (HSMs) and infrastructure solutions designed to safeguard the digital world today and tomorrow. Trusted by enterprises, governments, and infrastructure providers across the globe, we specialize in crypto-agility, scalability, portability, and post-quantum cryptography.